Jannik Sinner faces Ben Shelton at the 2025 Australian Open. Our Australian Open odds series has our Sinner-Shelton prediction, odds and pick. Find out how to watch Sinner Shelton.
Jannik Sinner has steadied his campaign at this Australian Open. When he beat Holger Rune in the fourth round, he was fortunate that Rune — a player whose stamina and endurance have been less than ideal in recent seasons, due to an accumulation of long and bruising matches — was not supremely fit. Sinner was physically unwell for portions of the Rune match, played in a punishing sun, but Rune was not the opponent who could take maximum advantage of Sinner’s own physical struggles. Going into the quarterfinals against Australia’s Alex de Minaur, Sinner knew he wouldn’t have to deal with the pounding, hot sun, but he still wouldn’t know for sure if his body would continue to bark at him.
The match could not have gone any better for Sinner. This was the best-case scenario for the top-seeded player at this tournament. The Italian rolled through de Minaur with no resistance whatsoever. A very quick and clean match not only gives Sinner plenty of rest for the semifinals; it shoved aside the questions surrounding his overall fitness.
Given that Sinner’s semifinal opponent, Ben Shelton, is a huge hitter with a powerful serve, this match does not figure to be a grinding type of competition. In other words, there won’t be many, if any, 30-shot rallies in which Sinner has to put forth enormous physical effort. In this match, physical endurance is not likely to be a central factor. Ben Shelton won’t be easy for Jannik Sinner to defeat, but the point being made is that Sinner won’t be stretched to his physical limits. Health probably won’t be an issue.
This match will be decided on the serve and the return. Sinner will try to get first-serve returns back and do damage with second-serve returns. Shelton has to go big on his returns so that Sinner cannot establish a comfort zone from the baseline. Shelton is unlikely to win rallies which go longer, so he will try to play first-strike tennis and land a punch before Sinner can create his desired rhythm in baseline groundstroke exchanges. Shelton has had a fantastic tournament, but he hasn’t played anyone as good as Sinner. This is a supreme test for the young American, who is in his second major semifinal.
Here are the Sinner-Shelton Australian Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Australian Open Odds: Sinner-Shelton Odds
Game Spread:
Sinner -6.5 (-122)
Shelton +6.5 (-110)
Moneyline:
Sinner -1600
Shelton +860
To Win First Set:
Sinner -410
Shelton +310
Total Games In Match:
Over 33.5 (-116)
Under 33.5 (-116)
Total Games Won:
Sinner over 19.5 (-116)
Sinner under 19.5 (-116)
Shelton over 13.5 (-120)
Shelton under 13.5 (-110)
How to Watch Australian Open
Time: 3:30 a.m. ET / 12:30 a.m. PT
TV: ESPN/ESPN2/ESPN Plus
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Why Jannik Sinner Will Win
Jannik Sinner played like a World No. 1 player in his quarterfinal demolition of Alex de Minaur. He should be physically fine for this match. He is clearly a better player than Ben Shelton, whose only chance at winning (realistically) is to serve huge, not get broken, and win at least one if not two tiebreaker sets. The margins are small for Shelton, large for Sinner, who looks like the favorite to win this tournament.
Why Ben Shelton Will Win
Sinner is strong, but when the Italian beat Alex de Minaur, he was facing an opponent who did not have a big serve. Ben Shelton has a big serve. He can hold serve, get into tiebeakers, and win them. Shelton could win this match without breaking Sinner’s serve. This could be a 7-6, 7-6, 3-6, 7-6 scoreline in favor of the American. Even if he loses the match, Shelton could play one or two tiebreakers and cover the spread. If Sinner wins 7-6, 7-5, 6-3, that’s a Shelton cover, not a Sinner cover.
Final Sinner-Shelton Prediction & Pick
Shelton will win at least five games in two sets because of his serve. He probably won’t win the match, but he will force at least one tiebreaker. That will enable Shelton to cover the spread. Take Shelton.
Final Sinner-Shelton Prediction & Pick: Shelton +6.5
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