Aryna Sabalenka plays Madison Keys in the championship match of the 2025 Australian Open. Our Australian Open Championship odds series has our Sabalenka-Keys prediction, odds and pick. Find out how to watch Sabalenka-Keys.
We did not get the blockbuster spectacle of Aryna Sabalenka in the final against Iga Swiatek. Sabalenka and Swiatek have collected a lot of hardware over the past several years, Sabalenka more in 2024 after Swiatek cleaned up in 2022. Sabalenka has become the elite hardcourt player in women’s tennis while Swiatek defends her fortress at Poland Garros in Paris at the French Open.
The two best women’s tennis players in the world, one would think, should have met in a major tournament final by now. We were one point away from having that scenario finally arrive. However, Madison Keys refused to lose. She saved match point against Swiatek in a thrilling semifinal. She trailed 7-5 in the first-to-10 match tiebreaker. She fought back and won the tiebreaker 10-8 to become Sabalenka’s opponent and once again prevent a 1-versus-2 showdown in the championship match of a women’s major tournament.
So, this is not Sabalenka-Swiatek, but frankly, it’s a hugely compelling and thoroughly interesting match just the same. Sabalenka is going for a third straight Australian Open championship, a second straight major championship (both on hardcourts, having won the 2024 U.S. Open last September), and a third major title in her past five appearances. With three major championship trophies already on her mantle, Sabalenka will try to win a fourth in this match at age 26. Squarely in her prime, Sabalenka has a chance to make a push for a career with double-digit major titles.
Standing in Sabalenka’s way is an inspiring athlete. Madison Keys has been part of the story of women’s tennis for a long time. She entered the top 100 of the WTA rankings in 2013 at age 17. Her luminous talent and powerful ballstriking were evident from the beginning. Everyone could see she had the chance to become something special. When she reached the 2017 U.S. Open final against Sloane Stephens at age 22, it seemed her career was beginning to hit its stride. However, injuries got in the way. Keys has had to miss or retire from important tournaments, including last year at Wimbledon against eventual tournament runner-up Jasmine Paolini. The stop-and-start nature of Keys’ career has been a point of frustration, and shot selection has also been an impediment to her game in previous years.
Now, however, Keys — who turns 30 years old in February — is an older, wiser player. She can still crack the ball but shows better mental strength and resilience. She has fought hard for her recent wins in Australia, losing first sets to both Elina Svitolina (quarterfinals) and Swiatek (semifinals) to make her second major final, seven and a half years after her first one. Madison Keys winning her first major title would make her career part of a larger story of perseverance being fully rewarded. This is a special chance for Keys to wipe away a lot of past frustrations and reach the mountaintop of her sport.
Here are the Sabalenka-Keys Australian Open Championship odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Australian Open Championship Odds: Sabalenka-Keys Odds
Game Spread:
Sabalenka -4.5 (-118)
Keys +4.5 (-112)
Moneyline:
Sabalenka -330
Keys +260
To Win First Set:
Sabalenka -235
Keys +190
Total Games In Match:
Over 20.5 (-118)
Under 20.5 (-112)
Total Games Won:
Sabalenka over 12.5 (-104)
Sabalenka under 12.5 (-130)
Keys over 9.5 (-112)
Keys under 9.5 (-118)
How to Watch Australian Open Championship
Time: 3:30 a.m. ET/12:30 a.m. PT
TV: ESPN, ESPN Plus
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Aryna Sabalenka Will Win
Aryna Sabalenka is the best player in women’s tennis, period. She dismantled Paula Badosa in the semifinals and responded well after falling behind 2-0. She’s tough, she’s powerful, and she is supremely confident. What’s not to like?
Why Madison Keys Will Win
Madison Keys is a talented player who has found an extra measure of toughness. Having defeated Iga Swiatek — who was in great form entering that semifinal — Keys should have no fear about being able to trade blows with Sabalenka and ultimately win.
Final Sabalenka-Keys Prediction & Pick
Sabalenka should win the match, but Madison Keys continues to show evolution in her game. Sabalenka winning 6-4, 6-4 is a Madison Keys cover. We like Keys relative to the spread.
Final Sabalenka-Keys Prediction & Pick: Keys +4.5
The post Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Australian Open Championship Prediction, Odds, Pick – 1/25/2025 appeared first on ClutchPoints.